Social Knowledge Sphere
The social knowledge sphere addresses the associations and living arrangements among individuals and groups in society. Focus is on the social activity dynamics among individuals, organizations and institutions. Major emphasis is on education, learning, culture, human relations, and interpersonal communication and media.
An article on "Falling Fertility" in The Economist (Oct 31, 2009) states that Sometime between 2020 and 2050 the world's fertility rate will fall below the global replacement rate. As industrialization swept through what is now the developed world, fertility fell sharply. When people got richer, families got smaller. The fertility rate of half the world is now 2.1 or less – the magic number that is consistent with a stable population and is usually called the replacement rate of fertility.
Today’s fall in fertility is both very large and very fast. Poor countries are racing through the same demographic transition as rich ones, starting at an earlier stage of development, and moving more quickly. Falling fertility rates in poor and middle income societies is a boon in and of it self. It means that, for the first time, the majority of mothers are having the number of children they want, which seems to be – as best as we can judge – two.
Falling fertility is a boon for what it makes possible, which is economic growth. Growth is helping hundreds of millions to escape grinding poverty. But if the poor copy the pattern of wealth creation that made Europe and America rich, they will eat up as many resources as the Americans do, with grim consequences for the planet.
In principle, there are three ways of limiting human environmental impacts: through population policy, technology, and governance. The first of those does not offer much scope – population growth is already slowing almost as fast as it naturally could. If population policy can do little more to alleviate environmental damage, then the human race will have to rely on technology and governance to shift the world’s economy towards cleaner growth.
Mankind will need to develop more and cheaper technologies that can enable people to enjoy the fruits of economic growth without destroying the planet’s natural capital.
[Editor’s Note: The amount of population that resides in any particular area or region is a major factor in the overall health and prosperity that may be achieved. Heavy concentrations such as in urban areas are particularly problematical in that pollution and energy consumption are disproportionate to the ecology of the land under use. The ALF concern is that the time it takes to work towards lower populations allows the severity of the ecological and economic impacts on poorer regions to be exceedingly unkind and painful to those unfortunate enough to live in the near term.]