The ecological knowledge sphere concerns the relationships between organisms, their environments and the goal of sustainable habitats. Emphasis is on the life processes and characteristic phenomena of living organisms. Focus is on bio-system management, energy production, population and demographics, and the availability of food and health services.
The authors of the Millennium Project, 2009 State of the Future, ask: How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? Here is what they have to say:
World energy demand could nearly double by 2030, with China and India accounting for over half the increase. Without major policy and technological changes, fossil fuels will meet 80% of primary demand by 2030…To stop carbon emissions from the energy sector by 2030, IEA estimates it will cost an additional $3.6 trillion in power plants and 5.7 trillion in energy efficiency, or,06% of world GDP per year from 2010 to 2030.
In 2008, for the first time, the majority of U.S. and EU increase in the production of electricity came from renewable sources instead of fossil or nuclear sources …Renewable sources will overtake gas soon after 2010 to become the second-largest source of electricity after coal. Meanwhile, over a quarter of humanity has no access to electricity and a third still relies on traditional biomass for cooking and heating, while billions of gallons of petroleum are wasted in traffic jams around the world.
Because the need for energy to power the growth of transportation worldwide, new de-carbonizing transport fuels will be needed. One approach is the growth of biofuels, Massive salt water irrigation of coasts can grow halophyte plants and algae to produce 190,000 liters of biofuels per hectare per year instead of letting less-efficient freshwater biofuel production (now 4% of global gasoline consumption) have catastrophic effects on food supply and prices. CO2 emissions from coal plants might be re-used to produce algae for biofuels and maybe carbon nanotubes. The global market for liquid biofuels was worth $30.3 billion in 2008 and should increase to 42.8 billion in 2013.
In the Nuclear power arena, a total of 436 nuclear reactors are operating today; 45 are under construction and more than 300 are either on order or being proposed. Another Chernobyl-type accident or nuclear hijacking could halt expansion of nuclear power.
On the coal front, approximately 1000 coal plants, with production lives of 40 years, are in some stage of planning or construction around the world CO2 capture. Environmental movements may try to close down such plants, just as they stopped growth in nuclear energy 30 years ago.
The energy challenge will have been addressed seriously when the total energy production from environmentally benign processes surpasses other sources for five years in a row and when atmospheric CO2 additions drop for at least five years.
[Editor’s Note: Will the earth’s ecology continue to be in conflict with the planet’s population growth, the rapid pace of economic development already underway, and the need for an exponential increase in energy production to support the progress desired and planned? Systems thinking and wicked problem solving may have met their match given the human factors at the heart of this issue.]