Technological Knowledge Sphere
The technological knowledge sphere concerns the application of scientific methods and tools to societal activities. Emphasis here is on the study, development, and application of scientific methods and materials to achieve societal objectives. Major focus is on biotechnology, information technology, and materials technology.
In this book by Frances Cairncross, the author states that distance will no longer determine the cost of doing business, and location will become even less important, particularly for screen-based activities. Size will no longer be relevant to business success, and individuals will be able to order customized "content for one." The value of strong brands will increase greatly in line with huge global markets, Communities of Practice (COPs) will become more common, and companies will be based on networks of independent specialists.
Lower start-up costs will mean more new small companies and larger companies will leverage the power of networks to increase brand strength. Information will travel faster to the remotest corners of the world, resulting in a shift from government policing to self-policing. Redistribution of wages will follow the restructuring of business, which will mean there is less need for immigration and emigration. Countries will compete on tax rates, and there will be a rebalance of political power. Global peace should follow.
Does anyone believe in this scenario? What else might result from this line of reasoning? [Editor]
1. The death of distance
According to Cairncross, distance will no longer determine the cost of communicating
electronically. Companies will organize certain types of work in three shifts, according to the world’s three main time zones.
2. Freedom of location
Companies will locate any screen-based activity wherever they can find the best bargain of skills and productivity.
3. The irrelevance of size
Small companies will offer services that, in the past, only giants could provide. Individuals with valuable ideas will attract global venture capital.
4. More customized content
Improved networks will allow individuals to order "content for one."
5. A deluge of information
Because people’s capacity to absorb new information will not increase, they will need
filters to sift, process, and edit it.
6. Increased value of brands
The author suggests that strong brands—such as products, personalities, sporting
events, or the latest financial data—will attract greater rewards because the potential
market will increase greatly. This will create a category of global super-rich – many of
them musicians, actors, artists, athletes and investors.
7. Communities of practice
Common interests, experiences and pursuits—rather than proximity—will bind communities together.
8. Changing industrial structure
Many companies will become networks of independent specialists; more employees
will therefore work in smaller units or alone.
9. More business diversity
The cost of starting new businesses will decline, and companies will more easily buy
in services so that more small companies will spring up. Global communications will
also favor giants by amplifying the strength of brands and the power of networks
10. Greater proliferation of ideas
New ideas and information will travel faster to the remotest corners of the world.
Third-world countries will have access to knowledge that the industrial world has
long enjoyed.
11. The shift from government policing to self-policing
As content sweeps across national borders, it will be harder to enforce laws banning
child pornography, libel and other criminal or subversive material, as well as those
protecting copyright and other intellectual property.
12. Redistribution of wages
Low-wage competition will reduce the earning power of many people in rich countries employed in routine screen-based tasks, but the premium for certain skills will grow. People with skills that are in demand will earn broadly similar amounts wherever they live in the world. Income differences within countries will grow; income differences between countries will narrow.
13. Less need for immigration and emigration
Poor countries with good communications technology will be able to retain their skilled workers. These workers will be less likely to emigrate to countries with higher costs of living if they can earn rich-world wages and pay poor-world prices for everyday necessities at home.
14. A market for citizens
The greater freedom to locate anywhere and earn a living will hinder taxation, claims
Cairncross. Countries will compete to bid down tax rates and attract businesses, savers and wealthy residents.
15. Rebalance of political power
Rulers and representatives will become more sensitive to lobbying and public-opinion
polls, especially in established democracies.
16. Global peace
As countries become even more economically interdependent, people will communicate more freely and learn more about the ideas and aspirations of human beings in other parts of the globe. The effect will be to increase understanding, foster tolerance and ultimately promote worldwide peace.
The Death of Distance maps out how converging communications technology will
reshape the economic, commercial and political landscape over the next few years.
It considers the practical ramifications of these advances for the way in which we
work and live, and looks at the changing nature of organizations, communities,
government authority and culture and languages.
The author outlines 30 developments in information and communication technology
that will impact on industry and society in the not-so-distant future. Since the book was published some of the specific, technology-based phenomena that she predicted have come to pass. Some developing countries, for example, now provide online services for the rest of the world, such as monitoring security screens, running help-lines and call centers and writing software.
Much of the social and political change she anticipated, however, has yet to show
through at any meaningful level.
Reference: Cairncross, Frances. The Death of Distance. London: Orion Publishing, 1
[Editor’s Note: More recently, The World is Flat, Crowded and Hot (Tom Peters) covers much of the same territory, but with greater detail on societal negative effects. Her data interpretation often ends with scarcity and conflict.